Would you buy a cell phone from these guys?
These cats are The Elegants – the original One Hit Wonders. In 1958 their song, "Little Star" went to #1 on the Billboard chart and stayed there for 19 weeks. They never made the charts again and are often cited as the prime example of a one hit wonder, mostly because they were the first – Billboard Magazine began charting their Hot 100 in 1958.
The music business is tough. The number of financial success stories is small, and the number of those successes who survive changes in musical trends and tastes to become long term success stories minuscule. I have no idea what the real numbers are, but I am sure the top three portions of this chart should be much smaller than depicted:
Above the one hit wonders are the 'one genre wonders' – like Donna Summers, the Queen of Disco, who had a bunch of hits, but faded into obscurity when the disco craze of the 1980's mercifully came to an end. There is no doubt many rap music 'superstars' will be looking for work when that genre runs its course – sooner rather than later I hope.
Most who pursue fame and fortune in the original music business never make a dime. Creative genius is only a part of the equation. Timing, work ethic, knowledge of the music business, catching a few breaks and a lot of other things go into the equation. It seems to me that investing in a bright eyed young musician with dreams of stardom depends a lot on your point of view. If that musician is some kid down the street, it might not be a bad investment. He's desperate and living on a shoestring, and willing to give up a big share of any future payoff for the price of a new amp and gas money to get to his next gig.
If that musician is your kid, however, it is a different matter. If he were my kid I would be recommending music school and pursuit of a job with a band playing someone else's music, telling him to hold a solid job and pursue his dreams of individual success in his spare time. Playing in a cover band at weddings pays $52,000 a year, all the way up to $150,000 playing in a big time symphony. The average musician playing original stuff would make more working at McDonalds – if he makes any money at all.
The rapid descent of R.I.M.– Research In Motion – the folks who invented the Blackberry are a stark parallel to the boys in The Elegants. In that regard, they are a lot like the folks who came up with Palm Pilots and countless others. And they were the equivalent of the Billboard #1's of their business. There should be little doubt that the innovation world has its own massive base of smart kids who have never made it our of their parents' basements.
It should be noted by the ardent proponents of innovation that Google and the Droid have a 38% market share of the smart phone business, compared to Apple's iPhone 27%, and the Droid is gaining share faster. There is a lot to say for waiting to see who emerges from the innovation basement, then improving on their creation.
The investment and academic communities that are urging innovation as the core of your business strategy are a lot like the guy who puts a couple bucks into the local garage band. They have little at risk, and potentially a lot to gain. If it's your business, however, the equation is a little different. The investment in innovation looks a lot more like betting on your kid's future. You have an awful lot to lose and you are betting against long odds. Much wiser to focus on being very good at the core business, and pursue the breakthrough innovation in your spare time.
James says
I always suspected you were more of a country guy.
Clearly I can cross off rap and disco
Bill Waddell says
James,
Actually I find country even more painful than disco and rap – I left it out because I am facing the dreadful reality that it is not a fad, but seems to be an institution. If the truth were known, I haven’t heard much good music since 1978 and, much to my wife’s disappointment, watch all four hours of the Woodstock movie every time it runs.
James says
Actually on a serious note, this is quite extraordinary and probably gets to the heart of the issue,
http://www.bgr.com/2011/06/30/open-letter-to-blackberry-bosses-senior-rim-exec-tells-all-as-company-crumbles-around-him/
Shows a lot about a corporate culture when an unamed exec sends an open letter to the media about his own company
Jim Fernandez says
Perfect analogy. Perfect message.
I was in a garage band in 1964 called The Zeppelins. We played together for 8 years making a little money all over the Los Angeles area. We should have known what would happen when in 1968 a group in England called Led Zeppelin was formed. We were/are very good musicians and we had a lot of fun. We all eventually pursued other endeavors. Me and the guys in my garage band still get together each year to party and play music.
I would love to go back and apply Lean principles (eliminate waste and create value for our customers) to my garage band and see what would have happened.
James says
Hippy music, that was unexpected.
Bill Waddell says
Yeah James, and in long hindsight I have concluded that the music was the only thing of substance I took from having gone through high school and college in the Vietnam era. The rest had about as much enduring value as the smoke that filled the rooms when the youth of the day thought up their great ideas.
Frank Patrick says
At the risk of coming off as a fanboy (which I am) I’m not quite sure why Apple is in the “One Genre Wonders” as opposed to “Genuine Success”. If you’re talking personal computer operating systems and office productivity software, I’ll yield to Microsoft, but wouldn’t dominance in the MULTIPLE genres of music ecosystems, smartphones, tablets, and retail add up to “Genuine Success”?
Frank Patrick says
Oh, an on the topic of music, I recently saw (and identified with) a bumper sticker that said “I may be old, but I saw all the cool bands.”
Bill Waddell says
Frank,
You may well be right about Apple – it’s all just opinion. I would be just inclined to drop Microsoft down a notch as move Apple up. It seems to me that Microsoft has just been pushing the Windows and Office peanut further and further for decades. Everything Apple has done strikes me as extensions and variations on the iPod. Someday an innovation will occur to render both of them obsolete and then we will know whether they were single genre successes or not.
I agree with the bumper sticker sentiment wholeheartedly.
Louis Renault says
If the post is true, why is there such an emphasis in lean circles on “strategy deployment” or “hoshin planning?” The core of this concept revolves around achieving “breakthrough” objectives. The daily grind of doing things well in order to add value always falls under the headings (gets swept under the rugs…) of “blocking and tackling” or “daily management.”
Bill Waddell says
Good question Louis. Maybe someone can answer it. You can look back over six years of blogging on EE and you won’t find where I have ever advocated strategy deployment or hoshin kanri as a means to achieve radical, innovative breakthroughs. I would be interested in hearing from the advocates of those things with an example of a company actually doing anything particularly innovative as a result of strategic planning or hoshin kanri. I would be especially interested in an example of Toyota doing it.
david foster says
I wonder what % of truly innovative products/processes actually came to be because someone said….”Wow, we’d better do something really innovative!”..as opposed from emerging from efforts to merely solve a particular problem better.
The microprocessor, for example, was not developed with the intent of revolutionizing the world, but rather as a practical solution to making a simple business calculator with a reduced part count and at a lower cost.
Bill Waddell says
My guess is that many – perhaps even most – stem from the process you described David. Of course many come from inspiration that great new things are possible – automobiles and flight, for instance – but I am sure very, very many come from the need to solve a problem that is impossible to solve with existing thinking and technology. That process of having people forced out of the box to spur innovation was a driving force at Motorola back in the Baldrige days when they were inventing and innovating pagers and such left and right.
David McGiverin says
Yah, keep on being very good at the core business, and pursue the breakthrough innovation in your spare time. Sorry Bill your a good friend of a friend but if people follow this advice they will be in line at the soup kitchen! Getting caught up in commodity hell from sticking to your core business is a mistake. It’s asking people to NOT CHANGE and adapt. FYI Not a rap fan but it’s here to stay. Sorry to disappoint old stagnant folks.
Stagnant water is a perfect environment for malaria -David McGiverin
Bill Waddell says
Ah …. an ‘innovate or turn into a dead commodity maker doomed to lose to cheap labor in China theorist’ checks in.
David, last week I worked with a company that makes mattresses, one that makes hair clippers, a capital equipment maker, and an aluminum extruder. All of them are profitable, all US centered, all of them leaders in their industries in most respects, most important in terms of quality and customer value. All of them do R & D and continually upgrade their products. All of them more than hold their own against foreign, low cost competition. They actually expect their people to change a little bit every day.
Which of them would you suggest switch from a strategy of continuous improvement of their core business to one of innovation – betting their future on a radical transformation of their core products? Or should all of them do this?
James says
I am liking this debate, I come to lean from a psychology perspective rather than manufacturing and frankly I’m more interested in the philosophy and culture of lean than any particular techniques.
The research on creativity seems to point towards creativity being just as structural and cultural as it is the province of the lone genius, and once organisations get to a certain size radical innovation becomes almost impossible, better off with the continuous improvement strategy in my opinion.
I can give references to long winded and tedious articles if its needed but I’m hoping I can get away with it in a comments section.
Bill Waddell says
Thanks for the comment James. I am not nearly as extreme in my views as I come across in the blog. The game is to stake out an extreme position to spur the debate and discussion, get everyone thinking and learning something (mostly me). Glad to hear you think that goal has been achieved.
Jim Fernandez says
Here’s my perfect formula for a company. Everyone conforms to the rules and the base goal of providing what the customer wants? Everyone is continuously improving operations. And then I take a little bit of my profit and I pay a couple of people who do nothing but innovate and create new ideas and new ways to make money.
James says
Thanks Bill,
I kind of guessed anyone who can cite Woodstock as their biggest musical influence must have some nuanced positions which don’t come across in the short form that is blogging.
This is one of the few blogs I comment on (and I follow a lot),I usually comment out of frustration, so clearly your policy of stimulating debate works!
Gary says
Way to try to scare people into working for gigantor organizations and never attempting to start out in a band. And people accuse me of being negative!
If you want to run out of oxygen, work for a soul-crushing, political mill of self-perpetuating idiocy. It’s a great place to wallow in your sorrows and know that you could only be somebody if your tried, but you know you never will, so you never do.
It is cheezy as all get-out, but inspiration + perspiration = respiration.
Follow your instincts, fail, then get smarter and better. Sitting on your tuff likely won’t get you far.